Independent Or Contrarian?
Photo by Liam Burnett-Blue on Unsplash
When markets are at an all time low and everyone else is selling, there are the brave few who wade right into the thick of things and start buying.
They do this despite the ‘evidence’ to the contrary, because they’ve done their homework, formed an educated point of view and are willing to bet on their own logic (versus the consensus view).
We often term this behavior “contrarian” - and it may well be that - but I think “independent” is the more appropriate term. I appreciate there’s an element of semantics here but there is a difference.
A contrarian acts in the opposite direction to what others are doing or saying. His primary motivation is, well, to be contrarian. We all know folks like this - those who want to find a way to stand out and this becomes their first instinct. (You see a lot of these folks especially on social media.) Their stance as a contrarian is their badge, their identity. They make a point of it.
But to be contrarian in this way means it’s an input factor - meaning the decision to be contrarian is one of the prime input criteria. That, whatever my decision, it must be contrary to what anyone else is doing.
That’s not independent thinking. In many ways, that’s no better than the illogic of the masses or the herd mentality that they’ll so often complain about.
Independent thinking is the ability to assess the situation, listen to what others are saying and then make your own decision - with conviction. This may or may not be contrary to what others around you are saying. But that’s not the point. The point is you’ve trusted your gut, your logic, your instinct and you’ve decided to move in a specific direction.
There’s merit in that, because it’s driven more by thought than emotion. The goal isn’t to stand out - the goal is to be right.
Don’t make the decision to be ‘contrary’ - make the decision to be independent. Move the needle on the basis of facts and your interpretation of them.
Contrarians make the news in the short term, but independent thinkers tend to outlast everyone.
